I am resurrecting the blog for the all-important task of ranking the Idol Top 24, something I’ve been doing in my Idol Fantasy League for the past few seasons. Now’s the best time to do it, since we’ve finally heard everyone sing and the results show (where 2 men and 2 women will be eliminated) is tonight.
The singers are ranked down from 24 to 1, and the factors are all subjective, based on how much I like their voices/personalities. Of course, this may be completely irrelevant to their actual potential as Idol candidates, so I’ve also included odds for each of them to win. For example, Lee DeWyze, who I absolutely abhor, is ranked 23rd on my list, but his odds are 8 to 1 to win (which ranks him 5th on potential), based on the judges’ impressions of him and his inexplicable popularity. I’ll list the contestants by odds after the rankings list.
Without further ado, here are my official AI Season 9 Rankings:
24. Tim Urban
Odds to Win: 99 to 1
It’s crazy that they chose this guy to replace Chris Golightly. He couldn’t hit the “high” note in that terrible One Republic song even in falsetto. Even crazier is that they decided to go with him over Thaddeus Johnson. On a related note, how bad was that Top 12 guys show? Maybe the worst ever.
23. Lee DeWyze
Odds to win: 8 to 1
Lee has that raspy nu-rock kind of voice that I hate, and he doesn’t do it well (pitchy, as Randy might say and Kara might steal from Randy). Plus, he seems like a total douchebag. Somehow, the judges overlooked his “pitchy-ness” last night and seem to love him. A lot of people, including ex-MTV VJs, also seem to think he’s attractive. I just don’t get it.
22. Lacey Brown
Odds to win: 80 to 1
Wow, that “Landslide” was a disaster (cough). At times, her voice is quirky in a good way, but it’s mostly all over the place, and she doesn’t have the vocal or stage presence to overcome her “loser” label (having missed out on the Top 24 at the end of Hollywood week last season).
21. Janell Wheeler
Odds to win: 20 to 1
Janell Wheeler is pretty, dating Tim Tebow, and cannot sing. I’m getting the sense that she’s popular, but I can’t imagine her voice carrying her to the end.
20. Haeley Vaughn
Odds to win: 60 to 1
A lot of people find Haeley Vaughn’s voice a little annoying. I think it’s INCREDIBLY annoying. I mean, she’s a 16 year old girl, so I’m not going to hate on her too much. She definitely has talent… if she learned to use better discretion with her vocal runs and her tone, she could be really good someday. I don’t think it’s going to happen in the next few weeks, though.
19. Didi Benami
Odds to win: 25 to 1
Didi (like Lacey) is kind of a vocal mess too. The judges were right on when they said her “quirk” was too affected. I was a little bugged by her seeming willingness to exploit the memory of her friend, but this article makes it seem a bit more genuine, I guess. Her voice is too inconsistent for me.
18. Alex Lambert
Odds to win: 70 to 1
Weird mullet dude did not sound like I expected him to. He actually has a nice tone to his voice, but Simon was right on when he described how Lambert’s on-stage discomfort transferred to the audience (even through a TV set). He also apparently sounds like some singer named James Morrison, who’s not the same James Morrison the next singer worships (segue alert)…
17. Tyler Grady
Odds to win: 40 to 1
Poor Tyler of Nazareth. He gets through because of his quirky ’70s vibe, then gets stoned by the judges for being too ’70s. But he probably hasn’t ever BEEN stoned (holla if you love biblical times/weed double entendres), since the judges were right last night that the vibe doesn’t seem genuine. If he chooses the right songs, he might last a few weeks.
16. Aaron Kelly
Odds to win: 12 to 1
Like Lee Dewyze, Aaron Kelly fits an Idol archetype: the young, dopey white guy with a big voice. But will he be more David Archuleta or Kevin Covais? His voice is a lot better than Covais’s and a lot worse than Archuleta’s, so we’ll see.
15. Siobhan Magnus
Odds to win: 35 to 1
Siobhan seems really strange to me. Her ignorance about what “dark horse” meant in a competition was very Kellie Pickler, but she’s obviously really different. Then, when Ellen advised her to act younger (she’s 19), she decided to dress like Tiffany singing at the mall. I think her head’s just like in the clouds or something. Anyway, her falsetto was nice on Wicked Game, but the rest of it was weird and unpleasant. Her version of “Living for the City” was pretty great, though, especially where she gets all crazy and goes up an octave, so I have some hope for her.
14. Joe Muñoz
Odds to win: 100 to 1
Poor Joe Muñoz. His voice is mediocre. He’s not particularly good looking. He has really thick eyebrows and he furrows his brow when he sings. This was literally the ONLY pic I could find of him in Google Images.
13. Ashley Rodriguez
Odds to win: 15 to 1
Ashley Rodriguez is beautiful and has a good voice, but I’m not sure it’s good enough. The judges don’t seem to care for her, and she doesn’t seem all that personable.
12. Michael Lynche
Odds to win: 45 to 1
Michael Lynche is ok at guitar. His voice is competent, but not super pleasant. He’s just kind of a blah contestant — what demographic is going to vote for him?
11. Katelyn Epperly
Odds to win: 28 to 1
Prior to last night’s Top 12 Girls episode, Katelyn would’ve been way lower in my rankings, but she kind of killed it last night. Thought it was the perfect song for her voice. I think her voice is genre-limited, her personality is too understated, and (Kara was right) her fashion choices last night weren’t the best, but she seems pretty consistent.
10. John Park
Odds to win: 95 to 1
I like John Park’s vocal tone and he seems like a nice guy, but man, his song choice last night was brutal. Unless the voting audience has many more Korean Christians than my estimate, I think he’s an early exit. Although I made the mistake of taking Anoop-Dogg early last year, my predominantly Korean Idol Fantasy League smartly didn’t take Park until the 15th pick. Thankfully, I don’t think I drafted Sanjaya back in the day.
9. Crystal Bowersox
Odds to win: 5 to 1
Although I like Crystal Bowersox a lot, I don’t like her style of voice a lot (I also really dislike Melissa Etheridge’s voice). She seems real, which I like, and I think she’ll do well (she went #1 overall in our draft), but she’s just not my cup of tea. On a side note, the over/under in our league on when she whitened her teeth was Week 5, but she blew that away last night with her newfound pearly whites.
8. Michelle Delamor
Odds to win: 30 to 1
I think Michelle has a good voice, but she’s a little plastic (to be expected, i guess, from a “corporate singer,” whatever that is) and didn’t get much TV time prior to last night. I hope she lasts longer than I think she will.
7. Jermaine Sellers
Odds to win: 50 to 1
I think Jermaine has a fantastic voice, but his horrible song choice (and headache-inducing vocal choices) in Week 1 as well as his salty personality doom him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was voted off tonight. Regarding his personality, I wonder if there’s some confusing stress and tension around being a church singer diva, if you know what I mean? Or am I assuming way too much for no reason?
6. Casey James
Odds to win: 6 to 1
Casey James is the kind of contestant about whom I typically make lots of superficial, negative judgments about (my college roommate once described these characters as “slaps,” because you see them and just want to slap them across the face). He’s sort of defying his “slap”-ness so far, though, by having a decent voice, some guitar chops, and a fairly charismatic, unassuming personality. He also made a great song choice last night… if he keeps doing that, I see him going far.
5. Lilly Scott
Odds to win: 10 to 1
Lilly Scott is one of a few contestants this year (the others being Bowersox and Garcia) who seem to be genuine, down-to-earth musicians who would never have tried out for Idol a few years ago, but now see it as a legitimizing opportunity for their music, as opposed to just trying out to be a celebrity or star. I’m not a huge fan of the Duffy/Adele style of vocals, but she pulls it off well. She’s almost too-cool-for-school, though… at some point, she’ll need to show some emotion if she’s going to win over the voting audience.
4. Paige Miles
Odds to win: 18 to 1
This was the only pic I could find of Paige Miles, which says something. I hadn’t heard her sing until two nights ago, and she’s really good. Even her terrible song choice of “All Right Now” couldn’t disguise her chops. If it’s really a “vocal competition,” as Simon is so fond of saying, she might do some damage.
3. Andrew Garcia
Odds to win: 3 to 1
Andrew was my first pick in the draft (#2 overall), based primarily on his popularity prior to this week. He’s a good-enough singer and guitar player to win it all, but he has to live up to the hype. If he doesn’t majorly mess up, he’ll coast to the Top 12, and probably beyond for a few more weeks.
2. Katie Stevens
Odds to win: 4 to 1
I think Katie has the best female voice in the competition. Her song choice was awkward and unwise this week, but I think she’ll get it together and build enough of a following to easily make Top 5.
1. Todrick Hall
Odds to win: 10 to 1
Todrick Hall has consistently been the best vocalist, musician, and overall performer (in the small sample size of information we have so far). He’s too good for this show, and the judges don’t even realize it. Yesterday, Simon assumed that Todrick found the arrangement of “Since You’ve Been Gone” somewhere (probably because Season 7 winner David Cook stole all his arrangements), but Todrick had written it himself. Although the arrangement was a bit low-energy, it showed his musical prowess and his vocals and stage presence were fantastic. Unfortunately, the judges don’t seem to understand him, which will play a negative role in the voting. For his sake, I hope he can dumb it down for everyone.
Rankings by Odds:
24. Joe Muñoz 100 to 1
23. Tim Urban 99 to 1
22. John Park 95 to 1
21. Lacey Brown 80 to 1
20. Alex Lambert 70 to 1
19. Haeley Vaughn 60 to 1
18. Jermaine Sellers 50 to 1
17. Michael Lynche 45 to 1
16. Tyler Grady 40 to 1
15. Siobhan Magnus 35 to 1
14. Michelle Delamor 30 to 1
13. Katelyn Epperly 28 to 1
12. Didi Benami 25 to 1
11. Janell Wheeler 20 to 1
10. Paige Miles 18 to 1
9. Ashley Rodriguez 15 to 1
8. Aaron Kelly 12 to 1
7. Todrick Hall 10 to 1
6. Lilly Scott 9 to 1
5. Lee DeWyze 8 to 1
4. Casey James 6 to 1
3. Crystal Bowersox 5 to 1
2. Katie Stevens 4 to 1
1. Andrew Garcia 3 to 1
My Fantasy Draft Results (my picks in italics):
1. Crystal Bowersox
2. Andrew Garcia
3. Katie Stevens
4. Didi Benami
5. Lilly Scott
6. Tyler Grady
7. Ashley Rodriguez
8. Todrick Hall
9. Casey James
10. Janell Wheeler
11. Lacey Brown
12. Haeley Vaughn
13. Jermaine Sellers
14. Siobhan Magnus
15. John Park
16. Aaron Kelly
17. Paige Miles
18. Alex Lambert
19. Lee DeWyze
20. Tim Urban
21. Michelle Delamor
Undrafted:
Joe Muñoz
Michael Lynche
Katelyn Epperly
